Despite several submitted proposals and a push to switch the AAAA CWOSSA format to an 8-team draw or even a modified 6-team draw, a drop in the number of AAAA teams has forced the hand of CWOSSA executives, who will switch the AAAA basketball (and other sport tournaments) to four-team events.The official classifications for 2013-14 haven't yet been posted on the CWOSSA website, but we've all heard about the declining enrollment at Waterloo Region high schools. AAAA schools aren't the only ones seeing a drop, as a high school in my neighbourhood, Southwood SS, is expected to drop down to "AA" from "AAA" next year as well.
Anyways, I've been told from my sources that the number of AAAA schools will drop from 18 to 15; likely schools that could drop below the threshold (to AAA) could include St. John's, Bluevale, Centre Wellington, Waterloo-Oxford and Huron Heights, as all five of those schools were within approximately 100 students of the cut-off this year.
According to CWOSSA regulations, if a division has 15 or fewer teams, a "4 team championship" is contested.
AAAA should have around 6-7 WCSSAA teams, 3 D8 teams, 3 D10 teams, and 1-2 D5 teams next season.
So, how will it look?
Early returns show that WCSSAA will receive 2 of 4 qualifiers, given that they have nearly half the teams in the division. After that, it's a bit of a mess.
D8 and D10 will alternate years receiving an automatic entry to the CWOSSA tournament. The district that does not get an automatic entry would play D5 for the 4th berth.
Therefore:
2 - WCSSAA
1 - D8 or D10 (alternating years)
1 - D8/D10 vs. D5 (D5 plays district that does not auto-qualify)
The interesting thing is that CWOSSA qualifies two teams to the OFSAA championships. As such, assuming they go the "usual" four-team route (semifinals/finals instead of pool play), both semifinals would be "OFSAA qualifiers".
What I Think
I grew up in the era of an 8-team, ranked CWOSSA tournament, so you know my preferences....as a huge high school basketball fan, I like the finality of an "elimination tournament" but I also like to see the Cinderella stories or the upsets that can happen in those situations.
The 2003 St. Benedict Saints, who went into the tournament seeded #6 but earned an OFSAA berth as silver medalists, are one that immediately come to mind.
Or how about the 2011 KCI Raiders, seeded #5 in that version of the "AAA" junior tournament, but who went on to capture an unlikely title?
Since the switch to the 6-team "pool play" (2006-07 season), we've seen some blatant problems with that set-up that have certainly affected the way the tournament played out.
None may have been bigger than in 2012, where Pool "A" in Senior Boys' CWOSSA featured (arguably) the top-3 teams in the entire tournament --- JF Ross, Forest Heights, and St. Mary's. An upset in the D10 playoffs meant that JF Ross was "D10 #2" while Centre Wellington took the "D10 #1" spot in the other pool.
Not surprisingly, the two teams that made the final that year were both from "Pool A" --- St. Mary's and JF Ross.
In fact, there was a streak of three straight junior finals that featured teams from the same pool, most commonly "D8 #1" vs. "WCSSAA #1":
2009 - Resurrection vs. Grand River
2010 - Resurrection vs. WCI
2011 - St. Mary's vs. Forest Heights
(It probably should have been four, as Grand River was favoured to defeat JF Ross in the 2012 semifinals and play St. Mary's in the final, but the Royals pulled the upset on their home floor).
Hopefully, with the new four-team format, CWOSSA officials will allow the organizers to seed the participants, if the format is "2 Semifinals ----> Finals". If they don't, we could certainly see some situations like the above where (arguably) the top two teams meet in a semifinal. Again, the last thing we would want is for CWOSSA's two best teams to meet in the semifinals in a given year.
The other option that could be explored would be pool play. Basically, have all teams play each other, with the top two "pool teams" advancing to the finals. This would certainly avoid the issue noted above, but I can already see the day where you have three teams tied at 2-1, and one at 0-3, meaning a spot in the finals (and therefore OFSAA) would be determined based upon plus-minus. Yikes.
Of course, the new format still doesn't reflect cyclical imbalances that can happen in CWOSSA Basketball. In 2004-05, the top four senior teams in CWOSSA were WCSSAA schools. In 2010-11, St. Mary's and Resurrection were the top two senior teams, yet there was only one D8 CWOSSA spot. Back when I played, Guelph and Brantford were traditionally strong (my junior WCSSAA championship team was seeded #5 one year at CWOSSA). Again, this rigid qualification structure may mean that the "best teams" don't necessarily go to CWOSSA when there are league imbalances.
And In Conclusion...
Obviously, there's still a lot to be determined with regards to the format, etc., but my main concern is two-fold --- firstly, that the "best teams" (regardless of district) get to advance to CWOSSA, especially during periods of cyclical imbalance. Secondly, that the tournament is set up in a fair and equitable manner; if possible, teams should be seeded to avoid situations like the 2012 "Pool of Death".
Hopefully, CWOSSA will take the above into consideration and provide us with a format that ensures that the CWOSSA tournaments are remembered for the great basketball that takes place on the floor, and not a discussion of "what ifs" as a result of the tournament format.
