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Thursday, January 23, 2014

WCSSAA Junior: Playoff Possibilities

Like I did yesterday in the senior circuit, today I take some "exam time" to, er, EXAMine the junior boys' basketball playoff scenarios.

Again, let's start at the top of the standings:

Seeds 1-4:  First Round Byes
Both the SJAM Highlanders (10-0) and WCI Vikings (9-1) have already clinched first-round byes for the playoffs.  Both teams will be favoured to win their remaining two games (SJAM - BCI/SSS; WCI - GRCI/JHSS), and should finish "1-2".

Grand River and Cameron Heights will likely finish "3/4" in the standings; Cameron Heights does own the tiebreaker so one more win for the Gaels will lock up the #3 spot.  The Rens should finish 4th.

Seeds 5-6:  Home Qualifying Round Games
Bluevale, who have SJAM and Galt left on their schedule, look to have the inside track towards finishing 5th in the WCSSAA standings. 

Jacob Hespeler, who play two teams at the opposite ends of the standings --- Elmira (1-9) and WCI (9-1) --- should pick up the win they need to stay in the 6th position.

Seeds 7-12
Then it gets interesting, with the rest of the WCSSAA junior teams....here's how I see things "playing out":

PHS (5-5): @WODSS, vs. FHCI (2-0): 7-5
KCI (5-5):  @GPSS, @HHSS (1-1):  6-6
ECI (4-6): @ FHCI, @ WODSS (2-0): 6-6
GCI (4-6):  vs SSS, vs BCI (1-1):  5-7
HHSS (4-6): @CHCI, vs KCI (1-1): 5-7
SSS (4-6):  @GCI, vs SJAM (0-2):  4-8
GPSS (4-6):  vs KCI, vs CHCI (0-2):  4-8

Preston should be able to defeat both WODSS & FHCI, who are a combined 1-19 on the season, to finish in 7th place overall at 7-5.

Eastwood, who were 2-6 at one point (due to a tough schedule), should win their last two games as well to finish 6-6.  I see the KCI Raiders also finishing 6-6, though the Rebels would have the "head to head" edge on KCI.

The key games to keep an eye on are definitely KCI @ Glenview Park and also Southwood @ Galt.  Both certainly "could" go either way, and will be huge to determining final playoff positioning.

Here's my prediction as to how I think it "may" play out, and considering the applicable tiebreaks:

7.  Preston (7-5)
8.  Eastwood (6-6)
9.  KCI (6-6)
10.  Huron Heights (5-7)
11.  Galt CI (5-7)
12.  Glenview Park (4-8) --- H2H over SSS (4-8)