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Thursday, November 19, 2015

CWOSSA "AAA" Junior: Preview & Predictions



We've come full circle.

After a decade (and a bit) of having the "AAAA" CWOSSA designation, we are back to a three-tiered system this year, "A" through "AAA".

For the most part, the "AAA" and "AAAA" designations have been merged under the "AAA" banner, which should make for some competitive championships in both girls' and boys' divisions this coming year.

I'll start my CWOSSA previews with a look at the "AAA" Junior Ranks.  Teams are in alphabetical order:

Brantford CI (Brantford)

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  None

The Mustangs, who have been at the top of my CWOSSA rankings this season, enter the CWOSSA tournament as the favourites, after going undefeated against CWOSSA opposition. 

Of course, they did get a push from the North Park Trojans in the D5 championship series, having to come from behind in the second game to win (and take the series, 2-0).  That experience of a "close game" is actually a positive and should serve them well heading into CWOSSA.

The 'Stangs have been a nice story to watch over the last two years; I actually had them as my #3 ranked junior team last year but they had to play #1 Kitchener Resurrection in a play-in game to advance to (the 4 team) AAAA CWOSSA tournament. 

With veteran leadership and solid guard play, led by Kennedy Chisholm -- who is a great distributor and can also finish inside or shoot the three -- the 'Stangs certainly have the "championship make-up" of traditional CWOSSA winners. 

Forward Taylor Hill should be another strong performer for the Mustangs; she provides an inside presence but also can step out and hit the three-pointer.

BCI has done it with defense all season, and for other teams to have a shot they will have to manage themselves against a variety of changing defenses, including a stifling pressure defense that has given teams fits on occasion this year.

Centennial CVI (Guelph)

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  None

The Spartans have had some injury issues this season, but still managed a 4th place finish in the competitive District 10 circuit.

Sabrina Smith has been a solid performer all year for the Spartans, with several 20+ efforts during league play, and is a double-double threat.  Abby Cain and Megan VanderMerwe -- who had a big game for CCVI during their quarterfinal win over ODSS -- are two other players to watch this weekend.

The Spartans don't have an easy road, playing Resurrection in the first round and then either Waterloo-Oxford or North Park in round two, but given their D10 experience (5 games against two of the top three teams in CWOSSA will have prepared them for tough opponents) they could certainly spring an upset if they are overlooked.

Kitchener CI (Kitchener)

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  None

Fresh off of (in all likelihood) the biggest fourth quarter comeback in WCSSAA Junior Girls' final history, the KCI Raiders certainly have momentum on their side entering the CWOSSA tournament, where they will be seeking their first-ever title.

Although Grace Mickie has been KCI's top scorer throughout the season, they certainly can get timely contributions from others, as evidenced by Emily Smith's game-tying three-pointer as time wound down the other evening.  Natalie Armatage and Maggie McLean are others to keep an eye on.

The Raiders may be one of the hottest teams right now in this tournament, having beaten WODSS in the WCSSAA final and, last week, having held SJAM to just 20 points in a semifinal win.

North Park CVS (Brantford) 

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  2009 (AAA)

Total CWOSSA JG Championships:  5 (All AAA)

If you're looking for a "darkhorse" at this CWOSSA championship, it might be the North Park Trojans, who have been a bit under the radar this year.

The Trojans have been in the shadow of their league counterparts, the Brantford CI Mustangs, but gave the 'Stangs a run for their money in the Brant County final.  

Simrand Grewal was a top performer for the Trojans during that best-of-three series, knocking in a couple of threes and leading the offensive effort.  Bria Yurczyszyn and Noelle Adams will also be instrumental to the Trojans' success. 

Orangeville DSS (Orangeville) 

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  1988 (AA)

Total CWOSSA JG Championships:  1

It's been a while since we've seen the Bears in the CWOSSA championships, so congrats to them for again being featured in the tournament. 

Though they finished with a 6-8 record in the tough D10 league, they gave 3rd place St. James (losses by 1 & 6) and 4th place Centennial (losing in the QF by 1) a run for their money.  They will certainly be the underdogs in this tournament, but as those results show, they can't be overlooked.

Hannah Bellai, who put home several 20+ scoring efforts during the season, leads the Bears' charge, while Lindsay Grant is also one to keep tabs on. 

Resurrection CSS (Kitchener)

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  2014 (AAAA)

Total CWOSSA JG Championships:  1

The Phoenix are technically defending champions, having won the AAAA title a season ago.  In the championship final last year, they got a great performance from (then grade 9) Delina Romano off the bench, while forward Buse Bin-Edward started in that game and is her usual imposing shot-blocking presence.  Both of them will provide big-game experience as grade tens.

Of course, they did graduate some serious offensive talent to the senior ranks, but their defense didn't skip a beat --- setting a D8 record for fewest points per game allowed in a season.  In fact, they also would have likely set a D8 single-game finals record (St. David had but 2 points after 3 quarters) before the Celts tallied 12 against the Rez bench late for a total of 14 (record was 13).

Grade 9 PG Sydney Gucker-Wickie might be the D8 league's MVP, and her ability to handle pressure against some of these teams will be key to Rez's success. 

Sir John A. MacDonald SS (Waterloo) 

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  None

The Highlanders are back in the CWOSSA championships again this year, after a 3rd place league finish and a qualifying game win over Elmira.

The 'Landers will certainly have the home advantage and the crowd support on Friday, with first and second-round games being on their home floor.  This shouldn't be overlooked and could definitely help them pull a potential upset.

SJAM is also a very balanced team, with three different players having led them in scoring during their three WCSSAA playoff games -- Olivia Moreau, Madi Sherman, and Sarah Hardy.  Olivia Moreau is also a strong performer, having been the 'Landers 2nd leader in each of those three contests.

Waterloo-Oxford DSS (Baden)

Last CWOSSA JG Championship:  2003 (AAAA)

Total CWOSSA JG Championships:  4 (2 AA, 1 AAA, 1 AAAA)

One of the three teams that have earned an AA, AAA, and AAAA Junior Girls' title since 1983, the Crusaders will try to add another one to their tally this weekend in Waterloo.

Coming off a disappointing loss to KCI in the aforementioned WCSSAA final, I'm sure the Crusaders will be out to prove a point this weekend.

Rachael Beitz & MacKeely Shantz were' WCSSAA's highest scoring duo, and will be counted upon heavily in CWOSSA.  Of course, the 'Saders have other talented hoopsters -- including several who played last year on WO's AAA Silver Medalist team.  Madeline Woolvett, Molly Cameron, Madalyn Davidson and Madi Sadler are those to watch this weekend.

Predictions

There's a couple of interesting first-round match-ups, but the one that appears the most intriguing is certainly WODSS against North Park, two "top ten" CWOSSA teams that have been fairly close in my rankings throughout the season.

Again, keep in mind first-round winners play first-round losers in the second round (quarterfinals).  After that, any loss results in elimination.

Here goes:

Round 1

KCI over Orangeville

Brantford CI over SJAM

Resurrection over Centennial

WODSS over North Park

Quarterfinals

KCI over SJAM

Brantford CI over Orangeville

Resurrection over North Park

WODSS over Centennial

Semifinals

Resurrection over KCI

Brantford CI over WODSS

Championship Final

Brantford CI over Resurrection

....of course, anything can happen between now and Saturday evening and it would just take one upset to throw the whole draw out of whack.  Good luck to all teams!

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