WCSSAA: Super Tuesday (Mark's WCSSAA Picks)

With all due respect to ESPN, and their "Super Tuesday" schedule for NCAA basketball, I can't think of a more appropriate title for today's action in WCSSAA play.

Of the top 7 teams in the WCSSAA standings, three of today's games (BCI/GRCI, SJAM/WCI, CHCI/FHCI) involve those teams.  KCI, who currently sit tied for 4th with Bluevale and Grand River (although they have lost to both teams in case all end up tied at the end of the year), is taking on 2-8 Preston, who are no slouch in their own right.  The steadily improving Panthers came within 1 point of WCI on the road before the exam break (after winning 2 league games right before that) and cannot be overlooked right now.

Of course, on the other side of the coin, we also have three matchups among teams in the lower half of the league standings --- games that will surely have an impact on who makes the WCSSAA playoffs.  Furthermore, several of these teams are also going to be fighting for WCSSAA's second CWOSSA "AAA" berth; today's Southwood vs. WODSS game may in fact determine who has the "inside track" in that regard. 

I can only afford 2 incorrect selections over the remaining regular season games to end up above 80% in WCSSAA selections ---- though that also shows how competitive many of the teams have been.

Note:  If you're looking to check any games out, all senior games are 5pm starts today.


WCSSAA YTD:  55-14 (.797)

Preston (2-8) at KCI (7-3)
My Pick:  KCI
Arguably two of the hotter teams in the league at the time of the exam break.  After dropping their first two games, KCI has now won 7 of their last 8 games.  The Preston Panthers, meanwhile, beat AAA rivals Southwood and Huron Heights by a combined 26 points before falling to the WCI Vikings by only 1.  KCI can't take them lightly here, and I don't think Coach White will allow that to happen.  I expect a KCI win, but won't be surprised if it's only by single digits.

SJAM (9-1) at WCI (6-4)
My Pick:  SJAM
Always a battle when these two clubs play, and I don't anticipate anything different on Tuesday afternoon.  I fully expect a low-scoring, grind it out affair in the 40s (or even 30s).  I'll take SJAM to be ahead at the end.

Southwood (4-6) at WODSS (4-6)
My Pick:  SSS
Both of these clubs are battling for a CWOSSA "AAA" spot, with today's winner gaining the "inside track" towards that berth.  I'll go with the Southwood Sabres, although I expect a tight battle in Baden today.

Cameron Heights (9-1) at Forest Heights (10-0)
My Pick:  FHCI
Despite being 10-0, the Trojans will need to win both games this week in order to assure themselves first place, as a loss to either Cameron Heights or SJAM would give those teams the head-to-head tiebreak.  The Gaels will have to do some major work on the 'boards to contend with FHCI's size advantage; offensively, they will be better off pushing the tempo and letting Amjed Osman work in transition --- I can't see them winning this one if it turns into a halfcourt game.  Homecourt edge to the Trojans, which is a big factor in this pick.

Bluevale (7-3) at Grand River (7-3)
My Pick:  BCI
This is the last regular season game for Grand River, as they have the "EDSS bye win" on the schedule for Thursday. As such, a GRCI win would lock up 4th place (and a home quarterfinal game) in the standings.  On the flip side, Bluevale does have a "winnable game" remaining against Eastwood, so they would have a "firm grip" on 4th place should they be victorious today.  Let's just say that it would be a scary thought for some WCSSAA coaches to see one of these clubs as the #6 seed (which is quite possible) entering the post-season.  I'll take Stefan Cvrkalj and the Bluevale Knights to be victorious over his cousin Filip Cvrkalj and the Grand River Renegades (an interesting sidenote) -- the Knights have been playing well of late and looked impressive in beating North Park last weekend. 

Huron Heights (3-7) at Glenview Park (2-8)
My Pick:  HHHS
The winner of this game will be in great shape for a playoff berth.  I'll go with the visiting Huskies, who are trying to secure their first playoff berth in school history.  Look for some offensive fireworks from Sean Samuel (HHHS) and Erist Wame (GPSS) in this one.

Jacob Hespeler (3-7) at Galt (3-7)
My Pick:  GCI
Going with the homecourt Ghosts, although I do expect GCI to experience some difficulty with the size of the Hawks.  A loss here would also severely hurt their playoff chances, so Galt it is.

Eastwood:  Bye Win (EDSS) --- will improve to 5-6.

WCSSAA Playoff Analysis:  What We Know

• Forest Heights, SJAM and Cameron Heights should finish as the top 3 teams in the league.  Things could get interesting if SJAM or CHCI lose their final 2 games (both play WCI and FHCI), and KCI and GRCI/BCI are victorious in their final 2 games (i.e. all three could finish 9-3). 
• Grand River can essentially clinch at least 4th (and get a home QF game) with a win today over Bluevale.  If the Knights win, they can lock up at least 4th place with another win on Thursday against Eastwood.  Note that SJAM & CHCI have H2H tiebreaks over both those clubs in case either the Highlanders or Gaels drop their final 2 games.  KCI does have a tiebreak over SJAM and will not play CHCI. 
• On the flip side of that coin, unless KCI drops a game to either PHS (2-8) or JHSS (2-8) in their final two outings, the loser of today's GRCI/BCI game will likely finish as a dangerous #6 seed.
• KCI is currently tied with Grand River and Bluevale, but they have lost to both teams.  That being said, if they win their final 2 games and SJAM drops their final 2 games, we could encounter a three-way tie for 3rd (as noted above).  Quickly doing some math, KCI would would finish 4th in a three-way tie with SJAM and BCI/GRCI under that scenario.  BCI/GRCI would take 3rd and SJAM 5th.
• KCI does have 2 home games remaining against PHS (2-8) and JHSS (3-7), so if they can win both of those, they will secure (at least) 5th place.  A loss in either outing means they'd likely finish 6th.
• WCI appears to be solidly locked in the #7 spot in the standings.  They already have 4 losses, and only have the H2H tiebreak over KCI.  So they'd essentially need to beat both SJAM & CHCI and have KCI lose at least one of their 2 remaining games to make the jump in the standings.  Always hard when you need to rely on other teams to help you out.
• Eastwood, Southwood and WODSS are battling for the #8 spot.  Eastwood also has a tiebreak (H2H) over WCI, so if WCI loses both outings and ECI can pull off a big upset over Bluevale, ECI could climb as high as 7th.  They also have a H2H tiebreak over WODSS, but lost to Southwood earlier in the year.  Also of note is that the WODSS/SSS winner has a "winnable game" on Thursday (WO plays GPSS while Southwood battles HHHS).  As a result, we may see one of those two teams sneak into that 8th spot ahead of Eastwood, however, we have to give the Rebels props for their improvements from a 2-10 season a year ago.
• The situation with the last 5 teams is still pretty murky.  All five teams are separated by one game in the standings (HHHS/JHSS/GCI 3-7, PHS/GPSS 2-8), and there are 3 games either today or Thursday that are matchups between those squads.  Galt seems to be most "in control of their destiny", as they battle both Jacob Hespeler and Preston over the final 2 dates of the season.

.....confused yet?  Should be a great final week of the season.

(Mark's note:  Post updated at 4:45pm as I posted some erroneous information before.  We'll have a clearer picture after tonight for sure!)