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Friday, October 26, 2012

WCSSAA Senior: Playoff Picture Comes Into Focus

To sum it up:  not a good day on the picks front yesterday.

After getting 5 wrong to this point in the season, I coughed up 3 incorrect selections yesterday, although I'm not going to lose much sleep over Jacob Hespeler's win over WODSS and Galt getting past Eastwood in what were clearly the two tightest matchups on paper heading into Thursday.

What was an eye-opener, though, was seeing CWOSSA #9 Cameron Heights upset at home thanks to a furious comeback by Elmira (now 6-5).  The Lancers trailed by 10 (44-34) with about 3:00 to go, however, a two and three consecutive three-pointers by three different players (Bailey Bond, Amy Hachman, and Julia Frey) actually gave the Lancers a 46-44 lead with :30 left.

Following a nice Hunter Johns reverse lay-up to tie the score, Krista Wiens was fouled under the basket with 3.2 seconds to play and calmly drained both of her free throws for the win.

Wiens had 18 and Hachman 13 for EDSS, while Liz McLellan (16), Johns (11) and Tyshaine Page (10) were double-digit scorers on the day for Cameron.

Here's the other recaps:

Bluevale 58, KCI 28
My Pick:  BCI by 16
The Knights rolled at home on Thursday, backed by great outings from Natalie Bishop (18) and Sarah Hamm (17).  Isabelle Mills had 7 and Olivia Nelles 5 for the Raiders.

Galt 31, Eastwood 28
My Pick:  ECI by 2
Should have gone the other way on this one, but it was indeed a close one down in Cambridge.  Ashlyn Beckman had a game-high 15 for Galt, with Megan White chipping in 5.  Sam Legue had 10 and Meagan Karai 6 for the Rebels.

Southwood 46, Forest Hts. 38
My Pick:  SSS by 9
The Sabres continue to move up the WCSSAA standings thanks to their 6th straight win.  Taylor White had 18 and Nicole Barnard 16 in this one for Southwood, while Blair McNaughton (18) and Sara Potter (11) led FHCI.

Grand River 58, Preston 45
My Pick:  GRCI by 6
Jamie Noonan (15), Leticia Skeete (11) and Kailey DeBoer (11) were all in double-digits for the Rens, who seem to be finding their offensive stride at the right time, averaging 56.0 PPG in their last 4 (and against decent competition like WODSS and CHCI, too).  Ashley White had a huge individual effort for Preston, with 27 points, while Breanna Johnson added 9.

SJAM 37, Glenview Park 29
My Pick:  SJAM by 13
The 'Landers firmed up their grip on a playoff-berth, but haven't quite secured it yet.  Malena McCrossan-Moses poured in 23 on Thursday for SJAM, while Jocelyn Kivell (9), Desiree Thompson (8) and Justine Schwier (8) paced GPSS.

WCI 68, Huron Hts. 28
My Pick:  WCI by 45  
Alex Klein had 16 and Erin Helsby 13 as the Vikes locked up the #1 seed in WCSSAA (as expected) with a win on Thursday.  Rachel Wilkinson had 7 and Jenna Gangl 5 for HHHS.

Jacob Hespeler 53, WODSS 45
My Pick:  WODSS by 3
The "Game of the Day" certainly lived up to its billing as the Hawks pulled it out down the stretch in front of a raucous home crowd.  Brooklyn Wright poured in 21 while Candice Wright had 11 for JHSS; Maddy Horst was unbelievable in defeat for WODSS as she poured in 35 --- yes, 35 --- points.  Becca Payne added 5 for the Crusaders.

WCSSAA Senior Standings
1.  WCI 11-0**
2.  Jacob Hespeler 10-1**
T3.  WODSS 9-2**
T3.  Bluevale 9-2*
-----
T5.  Cameron Hts. 8-3*
T5.  Southwood 8-3*
T7.  KCI 6-5*
T7.  Elmira 6-5*
T9.  Forest Heights 5-6*
T9.  Grand River 5-6*
T11.  Preston 3-8*
T11.  SJAM 3-8
-----
13.  Galt 2-9
T14.  Eastwood 1-10
T14.  Huron Hts. 1-10
16.  Glenview Park 0-11

** - clinched first round bye
* - clinched playoff berth 

Playoff Picture Analysis      
WCI has locked up top spot, while JHSS has essentially clinched the #2 spot (they have 0-11 GPSS remaining).

WODSS should take 3rd, assuming they beat SJAM --- they have tiebreak wins over Bluevale and Cameron Heights.

Bluevale and Cameron Heights play on Tuesday, with the winner taking 4th.  If Bluevale wins, Cameron would drop to 6th while SSS (if they beat Preston) takes 5th.

If Cameron Heights wins, then Bluevale and Southwood would be tied for 5th (and we'd need to look at the tiebreak scenarios as they haven't played each other this year).

After that, KCI and Elmira play --- to sort out 7th spot, while Forest Heights and Grand River, currently tied for 9th, battle for that position.

Preston has clinched (wins over SJAM & Galt); however, the final spot is still up for grabs if SJAM loses to WODSS and Galt beats Huron Heights.  Again, we'd have to look at the tiebreakers on that one.

My Prediction:
1.  WCI
2.  JHSS
3.  WODSS
4.  BCI
5.  SSS
6.  CHCI

7.  EDSS/KCI winner
8.  EDSS/KCI loser
9.  GRCI/FHCI winner
10. GRCI/FHCI loser    
11.  Preston
12.  SJAM